August13,2009
THE NEW ERA OF TRADING AND RISK PROFILING?
Perhaps the above question should be answered by the end of this week.
It seems that people have started showing the pole of trading by basic and really standard fundamental.
so it would be wise to recommend that not to hold position intraday. close out after every fundamental new fade out.
the fact is that, there is no more safe haven for dollar at the moment.
those speculators took the money on the table because they are really quick and fast.genious.
so, it is possible for traders to follow this trading technique ":to be base on fundamental"
the euro, pound and nzd, aus and chf as well as canadian dollar gains on the 'fundamental data published for U.S." which include the retail sales, monthlyt unemployment rate, core retail sales
and import price also drop.. even worse than expected.
instead, the data from europe region showed better than expected ; german prelim gdp, flash gdp, french prelim gdp were the highlights.
however, there is no fundamental daily data is available for the pound, but pound showed rally action 100 points plus. obviously the 'market mover' is the fundamental data of dollar weakness.
its is believed on the previous day or the morning earlier, that traders and investors was waiting for the Fed to take action regarding interest rate and QE program (bailout)... . since the Fed gave the optimistic approaches to recover the economy, by slowing the buying of treasuries, and keep the interest rate at lower benchmark for sometime this year, traders and investor do understand that as a signal showing U.S is in the phase of recovery (because now they are even courage to Stand Alone without bailout for a few month) and next coming should (or at least end of this year) be the exiting step over the recession. during the day, the demand for treasuries and dollar dropped to result from traders and investor start to chase after the Higher yielding investment and currencies , ; as per they said, to avoid their return on the investment in the future affected by the inflation that is seen to increasing.
Fed step to slowing the buying of treasuries are part of the plan to slow the inflation in the possible coming future. But investor acted fast to take advantage of the situation.
we are recovering. but ....bubble.. oh. ooo
THE WORST IS OVER FOR THE ECONOMY?
major stock index in Asia gained with NIkkei up 0.8 percent as the Fed stated on the FOMC meeting that the worst is over for the economy.
what is seen taking place in the market people are trading based on the fundamental data obviously what came out from the Economic Calendar.
: todays data came out that very bearish for the dollar and some bullish point for the higher yielding currency.
bad data for U.S as per the drop in retail sales, increasing in unemployment rate, weak core retails and import prices have weaken the dollar. The U.S dollar is not taken as a Safe Haven currency anymore, since the recovery over world financial is taking place firmly provided the meeting for FOMC is hawkish for the economy. Equity markets are running high, all over the world but the dollar is sliding down.
The fact is fundamental trading is easier to see and handled. Data come out, you trade, effect fades you go out....but how would you gauge that..??
Thursday, August 13, 2009
THINGS ARE REVERSING; THE FED IS SO NOT GONNA MAKE IT
August132009
the action in forex is happening again. the preference is not the u.s dollar today but other risky currencies. euro pound aus nzd gained. usd gains against yen.
canada has better than expected trade balance.
u.s as well has better than expected trade balance.
however, based on the sentiment,(the old sentiment where the buck got charm), dollar suppose to be choice.but, interestingly to know traders choosed canadian dollar. the pair slides 174 points within approximately 3 1/2 hours.
i am somehow agree with the idea that most big traders and giants only be in the market during peak hours, and after market moved, they get out totally. in other words, they are the 'market movers'. they wait for chances, and when there is, they'll take that opportunity and ride hundreds points before get out.
they are like genius.
we traders then, need to get in their boat so we don't lose all the time.
THE DOLLAR GETS WEAKER?
the sentiment is treasuries, whereby U.S were expected not increase their buying on assets ( bonds) but to increase their interest rate.
since the forecast of economist said Fed will probably keep interest rates at low for sometime now, and the possibility of buying more bonds for bail out.
investors were said to turn bearish on the treasuries as well as the dollars.saying that dollar and treasuries as ;;;safe haven;;; assets is losing their appeal as the recession is easing for the U.S at least and the world.>>> this is considered we are getting back to prefer more foreign higher yielding currencies like pound , australia, new zealand and the euro.
but again, why must these to happen, since yesterday, the equity market drop and even s&p 500 drop below the important benchmark of 1000 level. first what happened since August7 2009, after the U.S NFP whereby the data came out better than expected, trader already changed to bullish on dollar as (EXPECTING THE FED WILL INCREASE INTEREST RATE, YES??? BUT THEY WERE FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY by the economist to not increase the rate to be based on the fundamental where the unemployment is still at low level for the World Reserve currency country.
Where do we keep our money today?
to save them from drowning into the market crash. or is there really going to be the second wave of market crash? as i wrote this, the speculator already got out of the market and closed their position. damn profit they took. gud trade was taken there.
<<<<>> it means
that people tend to seek much more higher yield of investment now (means going risky) rather than stick to safe haven assets like bond and treasuries.and U.S dollar.
as reference on the U.S resident confident.pls have sometime to check this BPGCUSMF:IND Bloomberg PGC US 6Mo Crncy
the action in forex is happening again. the preference is not the u.s dollar today but other risky currencies. euro pound aus nzd gained. usd gains against yen.
canada has better than expected trade balance.
u.s as well has better than expected trade balance.
however, based on the sentiment,(the old sentiment where the buck got charm), dollar suppose to be choice.but, interestingly to know traders choosed canadian dollar. the pair slides 174 points within approximately 3 1/2 hours.
i am somehow agree with the idea that most big traders and giants only be in the market during peak hours, and after market moved, they get out totally. in other words, they are the 'market movers'. they wait for chances, and when there is, they'll take that opportunity and ride hundreds points before get out.
they are like genius.
we traders then, need to get in their boat so we don't lose all the time.
THE DOLLAR GETS WEAKER?
the sentiment is treasuries, whereby U.S were expected not increase their buying on assets ( bonds) but to increase their interest rate.
since the forecast of economist said Fed will probably keep interest rates at low for sometime now, and the possibility of buying more bonds for bail out.
investors were said to turn bearish on the treasuries as well as the dollars.saying that dollar and treasuries as ;;;safe haven;;; assets is losing their appeal as the recession is easing for the U.S at least and the world.>>> this is considered we are getting back to prefer more foreign higher yielding currencies like pound , australia, new zealand and the euro.
but again, why must these to happen, since yesterday, the equity market drop and even s&p 500 drop below the important benchmark of 1000 level. first what happened since August7 2009, after the U.S NFP whereby the data came out better than expected, trader already changed to bullish on dollar as (EXPECTING THE FED WILL INCREASE INTEREST RATE, YES??? BUT THEY WERE FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY by the economist to not increase the rate to be based on the fundamental where the unemployment is still at low level for the World Reserve currency country.
Where do we keep our money today?
to save them from drowning into the market crash. or is there really going to be the second wave of market crash? as i wrote this, the speculator already got out of the market and closed their position. damn profit they took. gud trade was taken there.
<<<<
that people tend to seek much more higher yield of investment now (means going risky) rather than stick to safe haven assets like bond and treasuries.and U.S dollar.
as reference on the U.S resident confident.pls have sometime to check this BPGCUSMF:IND Bloomberg PGC US 6Mo Crncy
where will we keep the money today?
Shall we?
let say the prefered pair to trade is GBPUSD. the fundamental data showed Great britain claimant count change to result worse than previous but somehow better data than expected. the scene behind might be because not so many people up for claim anymore since the economy is not accelerating.however the average hourly earning increase to better than expected to 2.5% from 2.3%. However the unemployment rate than formerly known to increase came up worse than expected to 7.8% from 7.7% expected over 7.6% previously.
overall market is still flat, and yet traders are waiting for the BOE Inflation report to be published on 5:30p.m (MAStime) followe by BOE gov A. King speech.
if it is dovish, pound will be more weaker and hawkish will bring a temporary increase in pound before the U.S FOMC meeting on thursday to determine the strenght or even the weakness of dollar.
let say the prefered pair to trade is GBPUSD. the fundamental data showed Great britain claimant count change to result worse than previous but somehow better data than expected. the scene behind might be because not so many people up for claim anymore since the economy is not accelerating.however the average hourly earning increase to better than expected to 2.5% from 2.3%. However the unemployment rate than formerly known to increase came up worse than expected to 7.8% from 7.7% expected over 7.6% previously.
overall market is still flat, and yet traders are waiting for the BOE Inflation report to be published on 5:30p.m (MAStime) followe by BOE gov A. King speech.
if it is dovish, pound will be more weaker and hawkish will bring a temporary increase in pound before the U.S FOMC meeting on thursday to determine the strenght or even the weakness of dollar.
whats goin on on the floor
hey there traders..
whats goin on on the floor
1. the change of trend in trading
what i means is: there is a possibility that the equity market to skyrocket.
however, the currency market is reversed in trend whereby for so long traders has been using high yielding currencies to profit previously, and now not so long. noticing the change of favor in currency, starting on August 7 2009, people are buying the dollar in the first place.
stock has been assessed to be overvalued, therefore, the man in the game is now selling those stock
. however this can be determined hypothetically by 2 options, null and alternate.
alternate is: when the dollar strong, the stock go up
Null is : when dollar strong, the stock tumble
these action is primarily refering to the report of U.S NFP on August 7 2009 whereby the result came out better than expected. these however, contrary to the saying of Ben Bernanke the Governor of Federal Reserve bank ; U.S resident will be losing job up to 10% until 2010.
As it is proved the statement was false, investors and most traders (even speculators) have decided to seek for US dollar in and to reject other currencies. dollar may take place again sometime this year as it is forecasted the Equity market will drop due to over value and the rumour that El Nino is coming to destroy the commodity.(what!! destroy..haaa cudnt find another word) El Nino disaster create ripple effect to the stock market as bad weather result the favor for stock to slide and stock preference to decline in value.panic usually cured by safe haven.
These sentiment is supported by the decision of Bank of England buying additional treasuries 50 billion pound sterling. directly showing the plan of Mervin A. King to solve the Queen countries economy.
it shows that Englands economy is very weak and vulnerable to deflation.
this is not good for the pound however.weak pound and strong dollar again.
about mr trichet, he seems refusing to make up the QE action, for how it seems that Euro really need that bail as per the behind the economic scene. so in the medium coming term as i'd say, euro is going dive again.
there is this forecast that controversy will lead to some division of currency pairs as to be favored.
as for instant, the commodity currency like CAD is likely to hustle against dollar as the oil price is still there to stand tall. the Crosses as well will likey affected as Yen is gaining power based on its fundamental ,plus emerging currency traders that transfers financing the higher yielding currency to Yen instead of dollar.
i have this feeling that currency market will somehow be at the same condition as in the mid 2008 where dollar is the big fish on the table.nice to grab.while others making new lows
just so everyone kno, this is just my opinion,think i cud share with.
so what do you think? or or or..no no no no.. what just happened ws a correction since dollar has BOTTOMED? !@#$%^ damn i'm baddd..
whats goin on on the floor
1. the change of trend in trading
what i means is: there is a possibility that the equity market to skyrocket.
however, the currency market is reversed in trend whereby for so long traders has been using high yielding currencies to profit previously, and now not so long. noticing the change of favor in currency, starting on August 7 2009, people are buying the dollar in the first place.
stock has been assessed to be overvalued, therefore, the man in the game is now selling those stock
. however this can be determined hypothetically by 2 options, null and alternate.
alternate is: when the dollar strong, the stock go up
Null is : when dollar strong, the stock tumble
these action is primarily refering to the report of U.S NFP on August 7 2009 whereby the result came out better than expected. these however, contrary to the saying of Ben Bernanke the Governor of Federal Reserve bank ; U.S resident will be losing job up to 10% until 2010.
As it is proved the statement was false, investors and most traders (even speculators) have decided to seek for US dollar in and to reject other currencies. dollar may take place again sometime this year as it is forecasted the Equity market will drop due to over value and the rumour that El Nino is coming to destroy the commodity.(what!! destroy..haaa cudnt find another word) El Nino disaster create ripple effect to the stock market as bad weather result the favor for stock to slide and stock preference to decline in value.panic usually cured by safe haven.
These sentiment is supported by the decision of Bank of England buying additional treasuries 50 billion pound sterling. directly showing the plan of Mervin A. King to solve the Queen countries economy.
it shows that Englands economy is very weak and vulnerable to deflation.
this is not good for the pound however.weak pound and strong dollar again.
about mr trichet, he seems refusing to make up the QE action, for how it seems that Euro really need that bail as per the behind the economic scene. so in the medium coming term as i'd say, euro is going dive again.
there is this forecast that controversy will lead to some division of currency pairs as to be favored.
as for instant, the commodity currency like CAD is likely to hustle against dollar as the oil price is still there to stand tall. the Crosses as well will likey affected as Yen is gaining power based on its fundamental ,plus emerging currency traders that transfers financing the higher yielding currency to Yen instead of dollar.
i have this feeling that currency market will somehow be at the same condition as in the mid 2008 where dollar is the big fish on the table.nice to grab.while others making new lows
just so everyone kno, this is just my opinion,think i cud share with.
so what do you think? or or or..no no no no.. what just happened ws a correction since dollar has BOTTOMED? !@#$%^ damn i'm baddd..
Market Mover?
This is a very quick review so we can remember what are the odds..
27/07/2009 market is on sentiment for recovery, suppose most traders going risky but....
during u.s session of trading in all financial market which are easily seen on the equity market and currency market, the market movers are subject to the earnings of companies important data like "Aetna and Verizon" besides new home sales. (noticed that these companies are risky full , listed "
the market suppose to go risky subject to anticipated new home sales, it came out much better than expected. but market turn to bearish since the earnings of aetna and verizon said slump case.
euro drop about 80 pips , chf drops by 40 pips and Cad drop 40 pips.
dow jones drop 30 points.
aetna is 3rd largest u.s insurance companies.
verizon is communication company. they reported sliding earnings and market response turn bad and tumble a little.
review from kathy lien "buy what china buys" the aud, the real , the yen.. where china have "going out business" subject to goverment of china is using its fx reserves to help the MNCs worldwide. they send money, buy other country's paper money.
so lets name it out, what is the market mover? speculator are sometime genius, they get in, they profit and quickly they fade out together with the momentum....
27/07/2009 market is on sentiment for recovery, suppose most traders going risky but....
during u.s session of trading in all financial market which are easily seen on the equity market and currency market, the market movers are subject to the earnings of companies important data like "Aetna and Verizon" besides new home sales. (noticed that these companies are risky full , listed "
the market suppose to go risky subject to anticipated new home sales, it came out much better than expected. but market turn to bearish since the earnings of aetna and verizon said slump case.
euro drop about 80 pips , chf drops by 40 pips and Cad drop 40 pips.
dow jones drop 30 points.
aetna is 3rd largest u.s insurance companies.
verizon is communication company. they reported sliding earnings and market response turn bad and tumble a little.
review from kathy lien "buy what china buys" the aud, the real , the yen.. where china have "going out business" subject to goverment of china is using its fx reserves to help the MNCs worldwide. they send money, buy other country's paper money.
so lets name it out, what is the market mover? speculator are sometime genius, they get in, they profit and quickly they fade out together with the momentum....
Factoring the keypoints
Lets have a specific perspective on how the "cost will take action" after the recession ends. it is referring to interest rates and yes it cost you a super controversial situation before you can decide to do risk profiling.
Increasing interest rate is a process to build back economy performances.
To get rid of sleestaks,before gov can even increase the interest rate:
all this factors must be confirmed which are: 3 + 1
1.automotive - NOT YET (cash-for-clunkers is helping but there is a paradox)
2.manufacturing - by dean maki, chief u.s econoist at barclays capital, the manufacturing recovery is happening now.
3.housing or property - NOT YET, BUT SALES INCREASED DUE TO LOWERED PRICE OF HOUSES. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, WHICH RIPPLE EFFECT IS RESULTED BY THE EMPLOYMENT LEVEL AND LOAN INTEREST BY MORTGAGE BANKS.
4. NFP, income, and job.
the most important indicator that can tell you where the economy is going in the short term is
the CONSUMER CONFIDENT FIGURE because it contributes to 2/3 (two-third) over the economy performance.
<>
Notice this too, there is one condition we need to be cautious.
Too high interest rate is not good; for the borrowing cost for manufacturers>low profit&earnings>stock drop, = speculators will simply short in no time and get out of the market before you even know it. Retail can't afford to shop at a high rate cost. Consumer confidence will not be there with you.
Too low interest rate is not good; for ROI especially will be eaten by inflation. Investor will run away for knowing the waste of investing in such country.
This sounds super basic and idiot but it really help some of us.
Increasing interest rate is a process to build back economy performances.
To get rid of sleestaks,before gov can even increase the interest rate:
all this factors must be confirmed which are: 3 + 1
1.automotive - NOT YET (cash-for-clunkers is helping but there is a paradox)
2.manufacturing - by dean maki, chief u.s econoist at barclays capital, the manufacturing recovery is happening now.
3.housing or property - NOT YET, BUT SALES INCREASED DUE TO LOWERED PRICE OF HOUSES. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, WHICH RIPPLE EFFECT IS RESULTED BY THE EMPLOYMENT LEVEL AND LOAN INTEREST BY MORTGAGE BANKS.
4. NFP, income, and job.
the most important indicator that can tell you where the economy is going in the short term is
the CONSUMER CONFIDENT FIGURE because it contributes to 2/3 (two-third) over the economy performance.
<
Notice this too, there is one condition we need to be cautious.
Too high interest rate is not good; for the borrowing cost for manufacturers>low profit&earnings>stock drop, = speculators will simply short in no time and get out of the market before you even know it. Retail can't afford to shop at a high rate cost. Consumer confidence will not be there with you.
Too low interest rate is not good; for ROI especially will be eaten by inflation. Investor will run away for knowing the waste of investing in such country.
This sounds super basic and idiot but it really help some of us.
Pound is weakening.
August72009
Why did pound fell today (August7l,2009) the interest rate was kept at the same rate but...? BOE does something that reveals the shadow behind him....the weakness of their economy.
the pound fell from near the highest level against the dollar since October and dropped versus the euro as the Bank of England increased its asset-purchase plan on concern the recession is deeper than previously anticipated. this is referring to the additional 50 b pound of treasuries purchased by BOE
The rand dropped versus all of its major counterparts as foreign investors sold stocks and bonds at the fastest pace in at least 12 years and on a potential utility strike. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the 16-nation region won’t return to growth until next year and interest rates are appropriate.
“The pound is selling off on the Bank of England’s expansion,” said Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS AG in London. The currency may “rally later as the market becomes reassured about growth prospects,” he said .
So to create a sentiment case, the fundamental trading is taking place in todays counter.
It is not quite shocking to know that pound drop, since the rally of GBPUSD since the March , that simulataneously taking back the equity market to skyrocket. Bubble? sucker rally? we'll talk about that later. Notice that there is always argument and these controversy keep some of us blinded to where we can't see the opportunity to profit.
Note that pound rallied for rising house price in England. we can that as pound mover..
Why did pound fell today (August7l,2009) the interest rate was kept at the same rate but...? BOE does something that reveals the shadow behind him....the weakness of their economy.
the pound fell from near the highest level against the dollar since October and dropped versus the euro as the Bank of England increased its asset-purchase plan on concern the recession is deeper than previously anticipated. this is referring to the additional 50 b pound of treasuries purchased by BOE
The rand dropped versus all of its major counterparts as foreign investors sold stocks and bonds at the fastest pace in at least 12 years and on a potential utility strike. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the 16-nation region won’t return to growth until next year and interest rates are appropriate.
“The pound is selling off on the Bank of England’s expansion,” said Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS AG in London. The currency may “rally later as the market becomes reassured about growth prospects,” he said .
So to create a sentiment case, the fundamental trading is taking place in todays counter.
It is not quite shocking to know that pound drop, since the rally of GBPUSD since the March , that simulataneously taking back the equity market to skyrocket. Bubble? sucker rally? we'll talk about that later. Notice that there is always argument and these controversy keep some of us blinded to where we can't see the opportunity to profit.
Note that pound rallied for rising house price in England. we can that as pound mover..
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